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It’s not even Halloween, but already Albertans are bracing for the onset of winter and colder weather. With those frigid temperatures come higher home heating costs, and most homes in the province are heated with natural gas. How have consumer gas prices varied over the years, and how do they compare with overall price inflation? Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index includes natural gas prices for home heating in its basket of items tracked each month. The blue line in the graph below shows how natural gas prices have varied wildly since 1994. In this index, the price of gas in 2002 is set equal to an index value of 100. At the most recent reading, in September 2014, the index was 184.4—meaning that home heating costs have risen more than 84 per cent since 2002. Over the same time period, the all-items consumer price index has advanced much more gradually. This is represented by the green line in the graph. Last month the index stood at 132.9—or about a third higher than it was in 2002. For most of the last twenty years, gas price increases have easily outpaced overall inflation. But on the commodity markets recently, natural gas prices have been relatively weak. This is bad news for Alberta’s gas producers, but potentially good news for home heaters. If gas prices fail to rise much over the next few months, turning up the thermostat this year may pinch a bit less than in winters past. 
**Article courtesy of Todd Hirsch of ATB Financial. Thanks Todd!!
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Home builders in Alberta ended the summer of 2014 on a high note when construction started on a near record number of new homes. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported yesterday that housing starts in Alberta totaled 47,105 in September. This figure is adjusted for seasonality, and represents starts on an annualized basis—that is, the number of new homes that would be started if the pace set in September was maintained for twelve months. Housing starts in Alberta are up 6.6 per cent from August. Over the last twelve months, they’ve risen by an astounding 17 per cent compared to the previous twelve month total. It’s also the second highest month for housing starts since the end of the last big construction boom hit the province in 2006-2008. The only other month that has seen higher numbers was June of this year. The surge in housing starts is in response to strong demand, much of it driven by in-migration to the province. It is also consistent with the strong demand for existing housing, which is reflected by the sales and prices of homes on the market over the past year. For now, Alberta’s economy is creating enough new jobs—and keeping wages high enough—to sustain this pace of home construction. There is little to suggest that builders are creating a real estate bubble by putting too many homes onto the market. 
**Article courtesy of Todd Hirsch of ATB Financial. Thanks Todd!!
According to Statistics Canada, Alberta’s cities and towns issued a total of $1.8 billion in building permits in August, a three per cent increase from July. Though August’s permit figures are impressive, they are just shy of the all-time record set in May 2007 ($1.84 billion). Record or not, residential and non-residential construction intentions are a staggering 30 per cent higher than the same time last year. August’s increase is mainly due to gains made in the residential sector. Residential permits were up a striking 14 per cent from July, to $1.0 billion. Alberta’s non-residential sector actually slipped ten per cent. Permits for the institutional and government component of the non-residential sector saw a 22 per cent drop in August. Alberta was one of four provinces that saw the total value of permits increase in August. Nationally, the total value fell 27 per cent to $6.7 billion after three months of sizeable gains. Looking specifically at non-residential building permits, Canada’s total decreased 41 per cent to $2.5 billion in August. It’s no surprise that the value of permits in Alberta continues to climb, especially in the residential sector. Alberta’s home builders are taking advantage of this province’s steady population increases which are being propelled by the arrival of more provincial migrants. 
The pace of economic expansion in Alberta is expected to remain solid throughout the rest of the year and into 2015, according to the latest quarterly outlook from ATB Financial’s economics group. The forecast, released this morning, is for real gross domestic product growth of 3.7 per cent in 2014 and 3.6 per cent next year. That follows similar rates of growth over the last two years. Since the end of the 2009 recession—during which the province’s economy suffered a sharp 4.2 per cent contraction—Alberta’s economy has outperformed most every other part of the country. With growth rates in the range of three to four per cent annually, Alberta is enjoying the “Goldilocks economy” – growth that’s neither too hot nor too cold. Things get out of balance when the economy starts expanding too far above four per cent: it puts a strain on labour markets, pushes wages up too quickly, and makes the housing and rental markets a challenge for many people to manage. The forecast is based on assumptions of West Texas Intermediate oil averaging $98/barrel (U.S.) and natural gas averaging $4.49 mmBtu (U.S.). Both are currently trading below these levels, but they started the year at higher rates. As well, the Canadian dollar is currently softer than the forecast assumption of $0.91, which will offset the lower U.S. dollar energy prices. For the full Alberta Economic Outlook for the fourth quarter of 2014, please click here: http://atb.com/SiteCollectionDocuments/About/Alberta-Economic-Outlook-Q4-2014.pdf 
*Article Courtesy of Todd Hirsch of ATB Financial. Thanks Todd!!
 Give your home a once-over and tend to winter preparation tasks and repairs before the year’s first frost, if you can. Getting the exterior of your home ready for the cold winds, snow and ice is critical for keeping Old Man Winter out and keeping it warm and toasty inside. By being proactive, you’ll lower your energy bills, increase the efficiency and lifespan of your home’s components, and make your property safer. Here is a great checklist for you to begin and complete. Windows and Doors
Lawn, Garden, and Deck
Tools and Machinery
Heating, Ventilating, and Air Conditioning
Gutters, Roof, and Drains
Done? Congratulations! You’re officially ready for winter!!  |
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January 2016
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SHERI-LEE PRESENGER
Real Estate Agent Real Estate Professionals Inc #100, 5810 2nd Street SW Calgary, AB |
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Contact me anytime,
Cell: 403-807-1145 Office: 403-216-1600 Fax: 403-366-3760 Email: sherilee.presenger@gmail.com |
The data included on this website is deemed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate by the Calgary Real Estate Board.
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